Anti-Incumbent or Anti-Democrat Incumbent?
A recent NPR poll has added additional support to the theory that the mid-term elections, at least in the House, could result in a significant shift in power. First, the poll:
To gauge what voters are thinking in House districts where surveys show the races will likely be tight in November and a switch in party control is possible, Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll of 1,200 “likely” voters in 60 battleground districts that elected Democrats in 2008 (one of the seats is vacant) and 10 districts now represented by Republicans.
So, the focus was on some of the so-called battleground districts. The results were telling, especially considering it was a NPR poll. While some have argued that the mood out there is “anti-incumbent,” others have argued it’s specifically “anti-democrat incumbent.” This poll supports the latter assertion. Interestingly, 44% of those polled favored their incumbent, against 37%. That 44% figure is strongly buttressed by Republicans though, since a majority of likely voters in those districts with Republican incumbents supported re-election, while a majority of likely voters in districts with Democratic incumbents desired new blood.
While this is only one poll of many, it further supports the conventional wisdom that 2010 may be a repeat of 1994. This should be an interesting summer.